Friends,
I meant to update everyone on Thursday but wanted to wait for the Mueller filings on Friday afternoon. So then I meant to send this out on Friday but had to mentally prepare for a Christmas party (shouts out to my fellow introverts). Then I was going to do it on Saturday but I went to a beeps concert on Friday and my brain shut down for 24 hours after the last flash bang penetrated my cranium. I suppose Sunday was an option but that never materialized so here we are.
If you missed my insights so much that you can’t possibly wait another week follow me on twitter (@crawfordgsch) for daily hot takes.
Trump/Russia
First let’s regroup on the Russian investigation. A lot happened this past week. All related to three dumbos named Flynn, Cohen and Manafort.
Michael Flynn
This, my friends, is a taste of what the sentencing document looks like for former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. The 13 page document is noteworthy for what is not shown rather than what is.
The document is a product of 19 meetings between Flynn and the Special Counsel. Even for criminal investigations thats a whole lotta talk. According to the filing, Flynn offered substantial assistance with not only the Russia probe but also an unspecified ongoing criminal investigation. The subject of this previously unannounced criminal probe? Unclear.
In fact, he was so helpful that Mueller is suggested the lowest possible sentence including the possibility of zero jail time. Time will tell what warranted that suggestion.
Michael Cohen
Cohen was sentenced on Friday in the Southern District of New York in relation to two separate cases. Cohen has largely been banking on a lenient plea deal but federal prosecutors in New York aren’t, it seems, the forgiving type. Who woulda thunk… They recommended only modest leniency for cooperation in their case which centered on bank fraud, tax evasion and of course porn star payoffs.
Southern district prosecutors want to see Cohen spend at least four years in jail. Mueller may be his saving grace after submitting a letter to the Judge saying Cohen had “gone to significant lengths” to help his Russian investigation.
But what did the filings actually say? In an effort to be concise I’ll just mention the two most damaging parts.
In the Southern District of New York’s case prosecutors wrote Friday that Mr. Cohen “acted in coordination with and at the direction” of Mr. Trump when he provided Stormy Daniels with $130,000 to keep her mouth shut about her affair with candidate Trump.
In short: President Trump directed Cohen to break federal law to cover up the fact he was cheating on his wife with a porn star…. Of course if your liberal twitter eco-chamber was a deep as my mother’s you would have known that two years ago #Resist. Alas, it is now official. Trump is an unindicted co-conspirator to a federal crime.
On the Russian front, Cohen testified that on or around November 2015, he spoke with a Russian national who claimed to be a ‘trusted person’ in the Russian Federation. This person offered ‘political synergy’ and ‘synergy on a government level’ and went on to propose a meeting between Individual 1 [aka Donald Trump] and the President of Russia. The person told Cohen that such a meeting could have a ‘phenomenal’ impact ‘not only in political but in a business dimension as well,’ referring to a Moscow Trump Tower.
The meeting did not actually ever take place because apparently Cohen already had a plug in Russia and thus this extra Russian contact was superfluous.
Manafort
A week and a half ago it came to light Manafort violated his plea deal and lied to the special counsel. About what? Mostly his dealings in Ukraine. But interestingly, the filing adds a new character to this story. Manafort’s business colleague in Ukraine, Konstantin Kilimnik, whom the U.S. government has said is tied to Russian intelligence. Oh, and Manafort also lied about his contacts with Trump administration officials.
The main takeaway from Friday: Mueller knows more than anyone thought. Sit tight, in due time, this conspiracy will be exposed.
New Blood
John Kelly, White House Chief of Staff is relinquishing his position by the end of the year. Trump’s first choice to replace him, Nick Ayers, declined the job after the two could not agree on terms of employment. Ayers who is only 36 years old began his career as Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue’s body many and quickly rose to campaign manager of David Perdue’s run for Senate in 2014. From there he made millions in political consulting, some of which doesn’t seem completely wholesome. Regardless, he has opted to return to Atlanta.
William Barr will be the next Attorney General of the United States. Barr, who served as AG under George HW Bush is now under intense scrutiny regarding his opinions of the Mueller probe.
Nikki Haley’s replacement as Ambassador to the United Nations has also been chosen. Who, you ask, is the lucky lady who gets to defend Trump on the international stage? That would be Heather Nauert, former State Department spokesperson and also former Fox News anchor. What a come up. Fox News to international diplomacy.
Trade Truce
The United States and China agreed on a trade truce last weekend after Trump promised not to raise tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25% as he has threatened. In return China promised to purchase a “very substantial” amount of goods from the United States. The truce lasts 90-days. Trump is hopeful of a deal but reminded the world that he is, in fact, the Tariff man…. Tarriff man, also synonymous with “slow-international-trade-to-the-detriment-of-the-world-economy-amidst-a-market-downturn-risking-another-recession” Man.
Quick Notes:
- Criminal justice reform is dying a slow death at the hands of Mitch McConnell who won’t bring it to the floor.
- Trump called former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson “dumb as rock” for saying publicly that Trump doesn’t read, which in and of itself is hilarious. But don’t worry Rex, you aren’t alone. Here are some other people Trump has described as having the intellectual capacity of a slab of concrete and by that i mean The President of the United States literally also called these people “dumb as rock”:
- Jeb Bush
- Mika Brzezinski
- Don Lemon
- Glenn Beck
- Chris Matthews
- Bill Maher
- Jonah Goldberg
- Congress passed a unanimous consent bill and now have until December 21 to pass a spending package to keep the government up and running. Why not a full spending deal? Trump wants $5 million for his southern border wall. Democrats are only offering up $1.6 million.
- The US economy added 155,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported Friday. That’s fewer than expected, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.
- Chief Justice John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh, joined the court’s four liberal jurists in declining to review whether states can block Planned Parenthood and other abortion providers from their Medicaid program, a win for health care activists and a blow to the anti-abortion movement.
- In January, House Dems will represent:
- 79% of Asians
- 78% of Whole Foods locations
- 72% of Latinos
- 66% of Clinton Voters
- 66% of African-Americans
- 60% of College Grads
- 54% of all Americans
- 45% of whites
- 39% of Trump voters
- 27% of Cracker Barrel locations
- 20% of America’s land area
Thanks and sorry for the delay.
Questions? Hit me back.
The Lens 