Friends,
Seasons greetings! Before I embark on this more-serious-than-normal edition of the Lens I want to wish you and yours a beautiful holiday season.
Now that that’s over, in case you missed it, the American government has shutdown, our allies feel “betrayed”, “blindsided”, the Kurds are facing imminent slaughter, the last great protector of the post world order has retired in protest (along with our top ISIS envoy), and the stock market is on track for its worst year since 2008.
But other than that…. all (criminal justice reform and bump stock ban) is good!
Syria, Afghanistan and Mad Dog Mattis
President Trump has decided to completely pull out of Syria and cut our military presence in Afghanistan in half. Those two decisions prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Brett McGurk, the special presidential envoy for the global coalition to counter ISIS.
The departure of Mattis, in and of itself, is concerning. Mattis, a former four star general, was widely viewed as the last moderating voice in the White House. While Trump bashed the web of international alliances that have staved off world war for decades, Mattis quietly reassured foreign partners that the United States is behind them.
As the New York Times puts it “to Mattis, alliances were a force multiplier. To Trump, they are mostly a burden”
But why, exactly, did Mattis leave now?
Syria
President Trump has directed the military to completely pull out of Syria.
First I’ll tell you who is happy with this decision: Syria, Russia, China, Turkey and Iran.
Who is not happy: NATO, Kurdish Allies, France, Britain and Israel.
Over the past ten years, the American armed forces have systematically depleted ISIS in Syria. At their height the militant group controlled large swaths of the country. At present? only a few square miles. As such, a withdrawal from Syria could be a legitimate option to move forward. A final military push to destroy extremist stragglers and a carefully planned withdrawal could, one could argue, be a prudent long-term foreign policy play.
Unfortunately, nothing about this decision was planned or vetted. According to CNN, “McGurk, the brains behind our ISIS strategy, was in Iraq meeting with senior leaders when Trump tweeted out the decision. Sources familiar with the matter said McGurk was frustrated over Trump’s sudden announcement, which was the opposite of the strategy he had just been briefing coalition partners on while in the region: to stay in Syria, fight ISIS and counter Iran.”
In sum, generals on the ground were not consulted and our allies were informed after the fact. For the Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces this is a near unimaginable betrayal.
The Kurds have been a staunch ally in the region providing American forces the manpower required to crush ISIS. Unfortunately, now that the US is pulling back the Kurds will be left on their own, after years and years of dying alongside American men and women. A top Kurdish military official is fearful they will be, for lack of a better word, annihilated.
What’s worse, Turkey, which has long viewed the Kurdish forces as a front for what they describe as a militant workers party plans to attack our longstanding ally.
The bigger picture: A withdrawal from Syria leaves a power vacuum that Russia is happy to fill. Press coverage in Russia is hailing the American decision. In fact, a well known, Russian foreign affairs columnist mused that “Trump is God’s gift that keeps on giving”. Combine this decision lifting sanctions on Rusal, a Russian aluminum company with deep ties to the Kremlin and it starts to become clear why Russia is so fond of the American President.
Afghanistan
American negotiators in Afghanistan have for the last several months been in high-level peace talks with the Taliban in an attempt to bring the extended conflict to a peaceful resolution. This week, senior American diplomats were blindsided by their own government. Hours before the troop drawdown became public Salmay Khalilzad, the top American diplomat leading the negotiation, made it clear to the Taliban that America’s military commitment in Afghanistan is firm.
Two hours later, Trump yanked the rug out from under Salmay and his team.
Again, like Syria, troop reductions isn’t an outlandish policy. What is outlandish and downright stupid is not consulting allies, diplomats and disregarding the opinion of every high level military official.
Why would the Taliban agree to peace if they know negotiators do not speak for the American government?
All in all these hasty, ill-advised decisions sent shockwaves across Europe. With Mattis heading out Trump’s’ worst will henceforth go unchecked. He despises the established world order. And now, without a moderating voice in the room, Trump may take further action. Already, he’s asked South Korea to pay over a billion dollars for American troops in the country, halted military exercises viewed as a show of strength to North Korea, questioned the necessity of NATO and mused about removing our naval presence in the Pacific a boon to China’s continued imperialism in the South China Sea.
Someone, anyone, needs to remind Trump that when the United States was attacked on 9/11 NATO exercised Article 5 of its treaty: If one NATO country is attacked, all NATO countries will be considered under attack and will join in defense.
That led to British, French, Italian, Spanish, and German troops standing side by side with Americans in our fight against Islamic extremism.
If that isn’t enough maybe we should consider that Putin has yearned for the destruction of NATO since the fall of the Berlin Wall and China’s consolidation of the South China sea poses a massive threat to American security. A retreat from the world stage will do irreparable harm to our foreign policy and national security.
Undermining American alliances is a bad decision made by an uniformed and impulsive President.
Government Shutdown
Government funding expired Friday night and there is no end in sight. Senators are going home for the holidays and thousands of federal workers will be without pay.
The Senate was unable to pass a funding mechanism after Trump made it clear he wouldn’t sign any legislation that did not include $5 billion for a physical wall.
Several compromises have arisen including on promoted by VP Mike Pence and Jared Kushner which would provide $2.5 billion for border security but not for a physical wall.
After Trump stated on national TV that “he’d be proud to shut down the government” he tried to shift blame to Democrats who are happy to wait this out until the take control of the House in January.
Reminder: Trump had the opportunity to fund the wall if he gave permanent status to DACA residents. He declined.
Also Reminder: Trump has said, on the record, 20 times since April, that Mexico would pay for the wall.
But now, he wants American taxpayers to take on the project.
My take: Border security is necessary (kindof). According to the Pew Research Center net The number of Mexican immigrants living in the U.S. illegally has declined by more than 1 million since 2007. Want more security? Fine, but a wall is an outdated asinine idea. Invest in sensors, drones and satellites. This isn’t 1960s Berlin.
Criminal Justice Reform
Now for the good news! On Friday President Trump signed the First Step Act, a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill supported by the likes of Chuck Grassley and Corey Booker. The legislation will give judges more discretion when sentencing some drug offenders and will boost prisoner rehabilitation efforts.
This is a good thing and amidst international turmoil it should not go overlooked. By chipping away at mandatory minimums and providing inmates with a path to rehabilitation the law is, fittingly, the first step in reforming an American justice system wrought with injustice.
Let’s give credit where credit is due. President Trump is the first Republican President in recent memory to vocally support criminal justice reform and his son in law Jared Kushner was a driving force behind convincing McConnell to release the bill.
Van Jones and Corey Booker, led the way on a Democratic side.
Other things to know
- The Trump Admin is moving to ban bump stocks, the gun accessory that turns semi-automatic weapons into rapid fire murder machines. The bump stock was used in the Las Vegas shooting. Not enough, but progress. (https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics/bump-stocks-ban/index.html)
- A federal judge in Texas struck down the Affordable Care Act, calling the entire bill unconstitutional. This comes after the Trump admin removed the tax for not having health care leading to the decision that tax of zero means the bill does not fall under Congress’s taxing power. Supreme Court will probably end up deciding this. (https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/texas-aca-lawsuit/index.html)
- Betsy DeVos, US Secretary of Education, revoked the 2014 guidance jointly issued by the Obama-era Education and Justice Departments. The non binding guidance suggested that schools could run afoul of civil rights laws if they disciplined students of color at higher rates than other students. (https://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/campaign-k-12/2018/12/betsy_devos_revokes_obama_discipline_guidance_students_of_color_protect.html)
- White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said earlier this month that the Trump administration wants to end subsidies for electric cars and other items, including renewable energy (sources.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-autos/white-house-seeks-to-end-subsidies-for-electric-cars-renewables-idUSKBN1O22D4)
- President Trump announced Mick Mulvaney, his budget director, will serve as acting White House chief of staff. Fun fact: Mick previously called a southern border wall “childish” but now says it’s “absolutely necessary” (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/14/us/politics/mick-mulvaney-trump-chief-of-staff.html)
Questions?
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