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Today, is opening day. But instead of fresh cut grass, crisp white lines, and the crack of bat on ball, instead, we (me) are bringing in the new year with gavel handoffs, self-aggrandizing floor speeches, and a new crop of freshman legislators wide eyed with a sense of optimism that will, indubitably, be snuffed out after their legislative priorities are doomed to the obscurity that is the 116th Congress’ legislative agenda.
Partial Government Shutdown
The government is still, partially, shut down. There are two sides to this story. Politics and reality. The reality of this situation will become increasingly dire if it continues through the weekend. The next federal pay period ends on Jan. 5th with checks due to go out the following week. Up until now this shutdown was nothing more than a political game but once the roughly 380,000 people told to stay home Wednesday and the additional 420,000 working without pay fail to receive a paycheck the pressure to find a solution will increase exponentially.
The fact of the matter is nearly 800,000 workers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, may face substantial financial stress if the shutdown is not ended. Seems like something that should be remedied, no?
How, you are probably asking yourself, will this get resolved?
Well, as of today, an agreement is no closer. Even after VP Mike Pence floated a deal that would provide $2.5 billion for a border wall, President Trump is not budging off his demands for $5.6 billion. Democrats, emboldened by taking control of the House of Representatives, are budging either. Congressional leaders met with Trump yesterday but the meeting quickly devolved into finger pointing. The most substantial action item agree to in that get together was to schedule another meeting on Friday.
This really comes down to who is going to be blamed, Democrats or Trump? Once one side realizes public opinion is laying the impasse at their feet solutions will appear.
Democrats are proposing passing funding for all federal departments that that are not related to immigration. Given the entire shutdown hinges on a border fence this seems to be a prudent move. However, Trump, realizing that takes away the majority of his leverage is refusing to accept the compromise.
The outcome that makes the most sense is trading enough funding to build a wall (or fence) along portions of the border in exchange for permanent status for DACA recipients.
116th Congress
The 116th Congress was sworn in today. Contain your excitement. The biggest winner of the handoff? Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi has achieved the unusual feat of returning to the speakership after a period in the minority. She served as speaker from 2007-2011 and is the first to recapture the gavel since House Speaker Sam Rayburn.
The new Democratic House majority is a major shift in American politics. Throughout his first year in office Trump has had the benefit of complete control of Washington DC, insulating him from robust Congressional Oversight. Now, with Democrats heading up the Judiciary, Intelligence, Oversight and Finance committees they are expected to use their subpoena powers to investigate a bevy of Trump related issues including his business dealings, ties to Russia, for-profit colleges, tax returns, illegal immigrant workers at Trump properties just to name a few.
In sum, while divided government will certainly slow the legislative pace of the Congress a Democratically controlled House will provide a much needed check on the President’s worst instincts.
The freshman class is made up of 11 newly elected (or appointed) Senators (3 Dem, 8 GOP) and 100 newly elected House members (63 Dem, 37 GOP). The following infographic is pulled from the Dentons 2019 US Policy Scan. Yes, this is a shameless plug for the Dentons Public Policy Group but its a comprehensive, 100-page (sheesh) preview. You can read the whole thing here: https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/guides-reports-and-whitepapers/2019/january/3/us-policy-scan-2019
I’ll let you draw your own conclusions (never thought I’d utter that phrase). First on the to-do list for Pelosi’s army? Health care, voting rights and infrastructure.
2018 —-> 2019
What happened in 2018? Here’s a quick reminder of the three biggest stories:
- Tax Cuts. Trump and the Republican Party passed a historic tax cut which, among other things, like cutting tax rates on the wealthy, lowered the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent a necessary change that made the United States more competitive internationally. The corporate tax cut is the only part of the bill that does not have a sunset. The argument among conservatives was that corporations would invest the extra money in workforce and capital investments. Thus far, it’s a mixed bag, but the general conclusion is that while wages ticked up, bonuses got a boost and investment grew, at least initially, none of those factors amount to the windfall of economic activity Republicans promised. The result? A balooning deficit, more on that later. If you want more info this New York Times article is the best summary I’ve found, take a look: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/27/us/politics/trump-tax-cuts-jobs-act.html
- Mueller. The Russian investigation has dominated the news cycle this past year and for good reason. There is now a distinct possibility that the President or more likely the President’s son will be indicted for coordinating with a foreign government to influence an American election. Amidst Trump’s consistent characterization of the investigation as a “witch hunt” it is far from that. To date, eight people have been indicted by the special counsel including Paul Manafort (former Trump campaign manager), George Papadopolous (former Trump policy advisor), Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn (former National Security Advisor) and Michael Cohen (former Trump personal attorney). The next question is what happens now? Once Mueller finishes his investigation where does it go? Enjoy this Dentons graphic which tells you all you need to know!
- Immigration. The Trump administration is consumed with illegal immigration, which, incidentally is at its lowest levels in generations. This year they enforced a child separation policy and now shut down the government over a wall Trump said Mexico would pay for.
What’s next? Think 2018 was crazy? 2019 will be worse. Democrats with subpoena power combined with the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and a looming 2020 presidential election will put increasing pressure on American Democratic institutions. We all must, in times like these, remain vigilant.
Bite Sized Politics
- Russia has arrested an American citizen Paul Whelan for alleged spying, which he vehemently denies. He faces 20 years in prison and is being held in solitary confinement. Per the NYT “There has been widespread speculation that Russia seized Mr. Whelan to exchange him for Maria Butina, a Russian citizen jailed in the United States. Ms. Butina, 30, pleaded guilty on Dec. 13 in Federal District Court in Washington to conspiring to act as a foreign agent. She admitted to being involved in an organized effort, backed by Russian officials, to lobby influential Americans in the National Rifle Association and the Republican Party.” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/03/world/europe/us-spy-suspect-whelan-russia.html
- Mitt Romney, on the eve of his wearing in to the United States Senate penned a scathing op-ed calling Trump. Here are the two most shocking quotes:
- In a 2016 Pew Research Center poll, 84 percent of people in Germany, Britain, France, Canada and Sweden believed the American president would “do the right thing in world affairs.” One year later, that number had fallen to 16 percent.
- As a nation, we have been blessed with presidents who have called on the greatness of the American spirit. With the nation so divided, resentful and angry, presidential leadership in qualities of character is indispensable. And it is in this province where the incumbent’s shortfall has been most glaring.
- Read it here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitt-romney-the-president-shapes-the-public-character-of-the-nation-trumps-character-falls-short/2019/01/01/37a3c8c2-0d1a-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.74f75ab4dc01
- Elizabeth Warren is running for President and she kicked off her campaign by popping a brewski on Instagram live. Sounds like a 50 year old campaign aids idea of “relatable”. Watch it here:
- Per NPR “In another proposed reversal of an Obama-era standard, the Environmental Protection Agency Friday said limiting mercury and other toxic emissions from coal- and oil-fired power plants is not cost-effective and should not be considered “appropriate and necessary.” https://www.npr.org/2018/12/28/679129613/trump-epa-says-mercury-limits-on-coal-plants-too-costly-not-necessary
- According to the US Treasury Department the national debt has increased by $2 TRILLION since President Trump took office. Total national debt is now $22 trillion.
- New Jersey prosecutors have collected evidence that supervisors at President Trump’s Garden State golf club may have committed federal immigration crimes. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-pol-fbi-ag-evidence-crimes-trump-golf-20181228-story.html
That’s all I got. As always hit me back with questions or concerns.
The Lens 