Friends,
Happy hump day! We are halfway through the work week… only two more days until two more days until Monday (again). Alas, unless you’re a federal employee, which I doubt you are, this week hasn’t been (relatively) that bad.
How, you ask, can I make such a definitive statement? Aside from the fact that definitive statements are my specialty, I know this to be true because some 800,000 federal employees either have been working without pay or not working at all.
Jokes aside, let’s start.
Government Shutdown
Day: 19
Longest Since: 1995-1996 (Clinton Administration – 27 days)
What does Trump want? 5.7 billion for a wall (steel or concrete)
What is Pelosi (Democratic House Speaker) willing to give: 1.3 billion for border fencing and another 300 million for additional border security items
Is a compromise on the horizon? No.
Why not? Neither Trump nor Democrats will budge. At this point the shutdown is a political game not an appropriations negotiation.
Background: Trump, throughout his presidential campaign promised his supporters a nice big concrete wall (paid for by Mexico) – his solution to border security. Once government funding was up for debate Trump saw his opportunity. After signing a continuing resolution late last year Trump began to fear that with an incoming Democratic House his chance was slipping away. Thus, in a shocking move, Trump rejected a stopgap funding bill passed with bipartisan support, irking many in Republican leadership. A few days later, the government shut down. And here we are.
In order to convince to the American people that the border wall is a necessary use of taxpayer money Trump and his administration went on a publicity blitz highlighted by a primetime 9 minute monologue by the President last night. Miss it? Watch here. Pelosi and Schumer (Senate minority leader) responded right after, watch their rebuttal here.
At a time when Trump is attempting to use his presidential pulpit to scare Americans into believing there is a crisis on the Southern Border, it’s imperative we fact-check. Here are some of his lies:
Claim 1: “There is a growing and humanitarian and security crisis at our southern border”
That, my friends, is a lie. According to Politico “The number of people caught crossing at the border (the standard metric for determining the volume of illegal crossings generally) remains below that of annual levels under President Barack Obama and far below the high levels of the 1990s and early 2000s.” (check the graph above)
Claim 2: “Our southern border is a pipeline for vast quantities of illegal drugs”
True, BUT importantly, according to a 2018 report by the DEA only a “small percentage of all heroin seized by CBP along the land border was between Ports of Entry” What does that mean? That means a border wall will do little to stop drugs from crossing the border hidden in secrete compartments and comingled with legitimate drugs.
Claim 3: This one is from Sarah Huckabee-Sanders (Press Secretary): “ 4,000 known terrorists were apprehended attempting to cross the border”
No. That number is 6 according to US Customs and Border Protection. The vast vast vast majority are apprehended at airports. Which begs the question… how high is this proposed wall?
Claim 3: “Over the years, thousands of Americans have been brutally killed by those who illegally entered our country”
That’s misleading. According to the Cato Institute undocumented immigrants are half as likely to be incarcerated than native born Americans. Fear being murdered? Worry more about your buddy born in in the US of A than an illegal immigrant.
Claim 4: “Mexico will pay for the wall”
No, they won’t.
In sum, the President is using his platform to manufacture a crisis. A crisis, which now threatens the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of workers who live paycheck to paycheck.
His lies are SO bad that Fox News of all people tore him to shreds last night. Watch here.
Options going forward:
1. Compromise (unlikely). If Trump and Pelosi had a too few many beers they’d both admit that a physical barrier (fence is most cost-effective) is necessary in some areas and unnecessary in others. But, this is now all about politics. Neither side wants to cave and it’s unlikely either will.
2. Trump gives in: Takes the 1.3 billion and opens the government. Highly unlikely.
3. Trump declares a national emergency: Under the National Emergencies Act of 1976 the President has the power to declare a national emergency and active powers embedded in legislation, waiting for a time of crisis. According to the Congressional Research Service the powers range from seizing property to instituting martial law. Luckily there are Congressional checks on the legislation but in the end the President has near dictatorial powers. BUT does he have the power to unilaterally appropriate money? Maybe. Maybe not. Legal experts disagree. Regardless, manufacturing a crisis deemed politically expedient is more autocratic than it is democratic.
Syria and Afghanistan
Syria
Take your mind back to last year. Specifically, the December 24 edition of the Lens. Trump decides to completely pull out of Syria and cut troops in Afghanistan in half. The decision, announced via twitter, shocked allies and US military generals alike.
Now fast forward to today. After intense lobbying from the military there’s a new, well thought out policy guiding our involvement in the middle east.
Trump said he’d removed all of the 2,000 American troops fighting ISIS in Syria within 30 days.
Three weeks later, John Bolton, US national Security Advisor, speaking in Israel changed that policy saying the US would stay until ISIS was completed defeated and Turkey promised not to attack Kurdish allies.
Turkish President Erdogan scoffed saying he’d take it up with Trump himself.
Afghanistan
Trump’s initial announcement called for the removal of 7,000 of the 14,000 American troops in Afghanistan. That has been dialed back to around 3,500.
Overall, this is good news. The United States cannot leave the region without a plan to secure the interests of our staunchest allies (the Kurds and Israel). The damage? No one knows who is in charge. When the President tweets, what does that mean? The general consensus is that Trump can say what he wants, real decisions are made by those who know the conditions on the ground.
Are you asking yourself, what do you know? How do I know you aren’t making this up? Good questions. Read about it here, here, here, here, or even here.
Mueller Investigation
Imagine paying millions of dollars for a lawyer only to find out he/she can’t properly redact material in a PDF. What a downer. But, to be fair, no one has accused Paul Manafort of being the smartest man on the planet.
This piece of news, buried in the shutdown debacle is very possible the most damaging material to come out of the Russian investigation thus far.
According to CNN:
“On Tuesday we learned — thanks to a redaction error in a filing in the special counsel’s investigation into Russian interference — that Paul Manafort met with a Russian-linked operative named Konstantin Kilimnik during the course of the 2016 campaign. And in that meeting, according to special counsel Robert Mueller’s office, Manafort discussed policies related to the Russia-Ukraine relationship and shared polling data about the 2016 campaign with Kilimnik.”
Until now, the charges against Manafort stemmed from illegal behavior BEFORE he joined the Trump team. No longer.
The main two points:
1. Manafort discussed US-Ukraine foreign policy, a priority of Russian president Vlad. (Putin)
2. Manafort SHARED CAMPAIGN DATA with a Russian-linked operative.
Now, this does not implicate Trump. He may not have known Manafort was doing this. BUT this does mean there was contact between the campaign and Russian aligned power players DURING the campaign.
I’m no political operative, but why do you share expensive propriety data with a foreign power? Probably if you want them to do something with it. Unless, of course, Manafort is part of an international databank bookclub. Literary exchanges aside, this is big news. Big bad news if you’re Trump.
Bite-Sized Politics
- In the wake of California wildfires in November that collectively damaged or destroyed more than 20,000 structures and killed at least 89 people President Trump is threatening to end FEMA funding the help the state recover. He announced this, obviously, via twitter. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/trump-threatens-to-cut-off-federal-funding-for-california-wildfire-relief.html)
- “Carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. are on the rise again after several years of decline, and a booming economy is the cause. That’s according to a report out today from the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm that tracks CO2 emissions in the U.S.” https://www.npr.org/2019/01/08/683258294/u-s-carbon-dioxide-emissions-are-once-again-on-the-rise
- Senator Schumer calls on Trump to withdraw the nomination of William Barr as AG over comments he made regarding the Mueller investigation. Senator Graham countered by staying Barr was committed to allowing Mueller to finish. (https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/09/schumer-trump-barr-nomination-1090380) (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/trump-attorney-general-pick-william-barr-would-let-mueller-finish-russia-probe-lindsey-graham.html)
- “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has agreed to deliver a classified briefing to U.S. House lawmakers on Thursday on his recent decision to lift sanctions on companies linked to a Russian oligarch and Vladimir Putin ally” (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/house-democrats-now-asking-questions-about-treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-n956766)
- “Reversing a trend in the final years of the Obama presidency, the Trump administration is auctioning off millions of acres of drilling rights to oil and gas developers, a central component of the White House’s plan to work hand in glove with the industry to promote more domestic energy production.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/27/climate/trump-fracking-drilling-oil-gas.html)
The Lens 